Rule of thumb:

Tim, pls find time to read Great ideas!

Monday, May 28, 2007

28-4-2007 讀報

9:07 PM

泡沫無懼 2007-05-28 投資理財 006, 經濟與投資, 石鏡泉　經濟日報副社長兼研究部主管
讀完了打個電話回家 2007-05-28 信報財經新聞 P33, 副刊, 面對面, 健吾
浸大生出書分享來港升學經驗 2007-05-28 大公報 A09, 教育

An idea a day:
95. Develop a bubble (泡沫) index, which is a similar indicator to The Economist's Recession index.
The Economist's Recession index keep counting the number of stories in the New York Times and the Washington Post which include the word "Recession", to act as a indicator and reflection on the world's investment environment.

By now, the most hip issue on the topic of economic is surely the "Stock Bubble" appears in HK and China market, although many are anticipitating it, no one could sure when will it comes.

I strongly believe in the wisdom of crowds, if all people believe something will happens, things just happen. As newspapers reflect the general feel and opinions of crowds to some degree, bubble index could surely be an indicator of the climax before bust, whereas near all people expect bubbles about to happens.

My bubble index is calculated as follows:
1. The index number is the number of articles with the word "泡沫" in heading or within the article.
2. The source of articles include all the newspapers and magazines in HK.
3. As a convenient way to count, different newspapers are of equal weighting, HKEJ will not have a heavier impact on the index than Wenweipo.
4. The index could also extent to China, whereas only China newspapers are counted.
5. Count in weekly style, as stock advise and columns are lesser in weekends. The number of newspapers is also lesser as some may not publish in weekends.

The bubble index in HK for the week of 20/26 May is 339.

Below is the index from the week of 25/31 Mar to 20/26 May:

84, 82, 115, 159, 193, 263, 331, 339

The index is increasing gradually from 84 to a max of 339 this week, how amazing!!!

Is there any indication (may be contrarian indication), or it is just a coincide???

Comments:

Hey hey, your ideas are back!!!

posted by Anonymous @ Monday, May 28, 2007 at 9:53:00 PM GMT+8

It's really interesting for your findings, although I am not quite agree with this kind of theory.

What if the index is a lagging indicator, instead of a leading one?

Also, like bubble itself, no one could foresee the peak of the bubble index, how could people make use of it to predict the time of busting??

But surely, this is a funny index, creative guy!

posted by Anonymous @ Monday, May 28, 2007 at 10:23:00 PM GMT+8

Long time no see man.

posted by Tim @ Tuesday, May 29, 2007 at 10:24:00 PM GMT+8

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